Difference between revisions of "2021 Iranian General Election"
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| type = parliamentary <!-- presidential, parliamentary, legislative, primary, or by-election --><!-- MANDATORY, and limited to the preceding five types --> | | type = parliamentary <!-- presidential, parliamentary, legislative, primary, or by-election --><!-- MANDATORY, and limited to the preceding five types --> | ||
| vote_type = Popular <!-- default --> | | vote_type = Popular <!-- default --> | ||
− | | ongoing = | + | | ongoing = no |
| party_colour = yes | | party_colour = yes | ||
| previous_election = | | previous_election = | ||
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| seats_for_election= All 499 Seats of the Iranian Majlis | | seats_for_election= All 499 Seats of the Iranian Majlis | ||
| majority_seats = 250 Seats needed for a Majority | | majority_seats = 250 Seats needed for a Majority | ||
− | | turnout = | + | | turnout = 95% {{increase}} |
| image_size = 160x180px | | image_size = 160x180px | ||
|1blank = TPP | |1blank = TPP | ||
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| last_election1 = 311 | | last_election1 = 311 | ||
| seats_before1 = | | seats_before1 = | ||
− | | seats1 = | + | | seats1 = '''362''' |
− | | seat_change1 = | + | | seat_change1 = {{increase}} 51 |
| seats_needed1 = {{steady}} 0 | | seats_needed1 = {{steady}} 0 | ||
− | | popular_vote1 = | + | | popular_vote1 = '''110,876,049''' |
− | | percentage1 = | + | | percentage1 = '''52.3%''' |
− | | swing1 = | + | | swing1 = {{increase}} 5.8 |
− | | 1data1 = | + | | 1data1 = '''60.1%''' |
− | | 2data1 = | + | | 2data1 = {{increase}} 4.3 |
<!-- Conservative --> | <!-- Conservative --> | ||
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| leaders_seat2 = Qom | | leaders_seat2 = Qom | ||
| colour2 = 0000ff | | colour2 = 0000ff | ||
− | | last_election2 = | + | | last_election2 = 188 |
| seats_before2 = | | seats_before2 = | ||
− | | seats2 = | + | | seats2 = 136 |
| seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 66 | | seats_needed2 = {{increase}} 66 | ||
− | | seat_change2 = | + | | seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 52 |
− | | popular_vote2 = | + | | popular_vote2 = 73,352,449 |
− | | percentage2 = | + | | percentage2 = 34.6% |
− | | swing2 = | + | | swing2 = {{decrease}} 4 |
− | | 1data2 = | + | | 1data2 = 39.9% |
− | | 2data2 = | + | | 2data2 = {{decrease}} 4.3 |
}} | }} | ||
− | The Iranian General Election of 2021 was called after the Senate rejected the bill creating the National Infrastructural Safety Advisory Board for a second time. Thus, the trigger for a Double Dissolution Election, dismissing the House and Senate at once was fulfilled. Election day shall be May 8, 2021. All 499 seats of the House of Representatives and all 252 seats of the Imperial Senate, were up for election. The incumbent third term Labor Government led by [[Chrisjen Avasarala]] entered the election with 311 of the 499 seats in the House of Representatives and 123 Senators. The opposition, led by Emrys Taghdian | + | The Iranian General Election of 2021 was called after the Senate rejected the bill creating the National Infrastructural Safety Advisory Board for a second time. Thus, the trigger for a Double Dissolution Election, dismissing the House and Senate at once was fulfilled. Election day shall be May 8, 2021. All 499 seats of the House of Representatives and all 252 seats of the Imperial Senate, were up for election. The incumbent third term Labor Government led by [[Chrisjen Avasarala]] entered the election with 311 of the 499 seats in the House of Representatives and 123 Senators. The opposition, led by Emrys Taghdian was seeking to form government at the conclusion of this election. |
Iran enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and optional preferential single transferable voting in the proportionally represented Senate. The election was administered by the Imperial National Electoral Commission. | Iran enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and optional preferential single transferable voting in the proportionally represented Senate. The election was administered by the Imperial National Electoral Commission. | ||
+ | |||
+ | [[Chrisjen Avasarala]] led Labor to a record fourth government with a landslide 352 seats in the House of Representatives, constituting over 70% of the House floor. The election led to the formation of the Second Avasarala Government and the implementation of the wide ranging reforms the incumbent Labor Government had pledged. It also led to internal disputes among the Liberal Democratic caucus with Emrys Taghdian refusing to step aside from the leadership for some time after the election. | ||
==Results== | ==Results== | ||
+ | {{bar box | ||
+ | |title=Popular vote|titlebar=#ddd|width=600px|barwidth=410px|bars={{bar percent|'''Labor'''|#ff0000|52.3}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Liberal Democrats|#0000ff|34.6}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Greens|#2DCF09|6.9}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Other|#777777|6.2}}}} | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{bar box | ||
+ | | title=Two-party-preferred vote | ||
+ | | titlebar=#ddd | ||
+ | | width=600px | ||
+ | | barwidth=410px | ||
+ | | bars= | ||
+ | {{bar percent|'''Labor'''|#ff0000|60.1}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Liberal Democrats|#0000ff|39.9}} | ||
+ | }} | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{bar box | ||
+ | |title=Seats|titlebar=#ddd|width=600px|barwidth=410px|bars={{bar percent|'''Labor'''|#ff0000|72.55}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Liberal Democrats|#0000ff|27.25}} | ||
+ | {{bar percent|Greens|#2DCF09|0.002}}}} | ||
==Analysis== | ==Analysis== | ||
==Senate Projections== | ==Senate Projections== | ||
− | ===Projections from April 1 - April | + | ===Projections from April 1 - April 18=== |
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|- | |- | ||
Line 134: | Line 156: | ||
! colspan="2"| Overall result | ! colspan="2"| Overall result | ||
| style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 4 seat majority''' | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 4 seat majority''' | ||
− | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> | + | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 7 seat majority''' |
| {{Lite Labor}} | '''Labor''' <br /> ''Largest Party'' | | {{Lite Labor}} | '''Labor''' <br /> ''Largest Party'' | ||
| {{Lite Labor}} | '''Labor''' <br /> ''Largest Party'' | | {{Lite Labor}} | '''Labor''' <br /> ''Largest Party'' | ||
| style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 2 seat majority''' | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 2 seat majority''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
− | ===Projections from April | + | |
+ | ===Projections from April 18 - May 8=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|- | |- | ||
Line 212: | Line 235: | ||
| style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 5 seat majority''' | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 5 seat majority''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
− | + | ===Final Projections=== | |
+ | {| class="wikitable" | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | ! colspan="2" | Parties | ||
+ | ! style="vertical-align:top;" | Iran National | ||
+ | ! style="vertical-align:top;" | Tehran Calculus | ||
+ | ! style="vertical-align:top;" | Mappers Iran | ||
+ | ! style="vertical-align:top;" | Elections Etc. | ||
+ | ! style="vertical-align:top;" | Imperial Projections | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="{{Labor Party/meta/color}}" | | ||
+ | | National Labor | ||
+ | | {{Labor Party Text Block}} | {{center|129}} | ||
+ | | {{Labor Party Text Block}} | {{center|132}} | ||
+ | | {{Labor Party Text Block}} | {{center|127}} | ||
+ | | {{Labor Party Text Block}} | {{center|128}} | ||
+ | | {{Lite Labor}} | {{center|126}} | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#0000ff" | | ||
+ | | Liberal Democratic Party | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 110 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 101 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 100 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 96 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 103 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#2DCF09" | | ||
+ | | Greens | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 3 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 2 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#104404" | | ||
+ | | Shooters | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#D3D825" | | ||
+ | | Farmers | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#BB0606" | | ||
+ | | Communist Bloc | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 1 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 0 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | | bgcolor="#B8B8B8" | | ||
+ | | Independents | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 11 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 17 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 22 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 22 | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center;"| 19 | ||
+ | |- | ||
+ | ! colspan="2"| Overall result | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 3 seat majority''' | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 6 seat majority''' | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 1 seat majority''' | ||
+ | | style="text-align:center; background:{{Labor Party/meta/color}}; color:white" | '''Labor <br /> 2 seat majority''' | ||
+ | | {{Lite Labor}} | '''Labor''' <br /> ''Largest Party'' | ||
+ | |} | ||
==Newspaper Endorsements== | ==Newspaper Endorsements== | ||
{| class="wikitable floatright" | {| class="wikitable floatright" | ||
Line 260: | Line 355: | ||
|Liberal Democrats | |Liberal Democrats | ||
|} | |} | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
==International Reactions== | ==International Reactions== |
Latest revision as of 09:34, 25 January 2020
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The Iranian General Election of 2021 was called after the Senate rejected the bill creating the National Infrastructural Safety Advisory Board for a second time. Thus, the trigger for a Double Dissolution Election, dismissing the House and Senate at once was fulfilled. Election day shall be May 8, 2021. All 499 seats of the House of Representatives and all 252 seats of the Imperial Senate, were up for election. The incumbent third term Labor Government led by Chrisjen Avasarala entered the election with 311 of the 499 seats in the House of Representatives and 123 Senators. The opposition, led by Emrys Taghdian was seeking to form government at the conclusion of this election.
Iran enforces compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and optional preferential single transferable voting in the proportionally represented Senate. The election was administered by the Imperial National Electoral Commission.
Chrisjen Avasarala led Labor to a record fourth government with a landslide 352 seats in the House of Representatives, constituting over 70% of the House floor. The election led to the formation of the Second Avasarala Government and the implementation of the wide ranging reforms the incumbent Labor Government had pledged. It also led to internal disputes among the Liberal Democratic caucus with Emrys Taghdian refusing to step aside from the leadership for some time after the election.
Contents
Results
Analysis
Senate Projections
Projections from April 1 - April 18
Parties | Iran National | Tehran Calculus | Mappers Iran | Elections Etc. | Imperial Projections | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Labor | 130
|
133
|
125
|
124
|
128
| |
Liberal Democratic Party | 96 | 98 | 102 | 103 | 99 | |
Greens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
Shooters | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Farmers | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
Communist Bloc | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Independents | 19 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 19 | |
Overall result | Labor 4 seat majority |
Labor 7 seat majority |
Labor Largest Party |
Labor Largest Party |
Labor 2 seat majority |
Projections from April 18 - May 8
Parties | Iran National | Tehran Calculus | Mappers Iran | Elections Etc. | Imperial Projections | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Labor | 131
|
136
|
127
|
126
|
131
| |
Liberal Democratic Party | 95 | 95 | 104 | 102 | 98 | |
Greens | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
Shooters | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Farmers | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Communist Bloc | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Independents | 21 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 20 | |
Overall result | Labor 5 seat majority |
Labor 10 seat majority |
Labor 1 seat majority |
Labor Largest Party |
Labor 5 seat majority |
Final Projections
Parties | Iran National | Tehran Calculus | Mappers Iran | Elections Etc. | Imperial Projections | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Labor | 129
|
132
|
127
|
128
|
126
| |
Liberal Democratic Party | 110 | 101 | 100 | 96 | 103 | |
Greens | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
Shooters | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Farmers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Communist Bloc | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Independents | 11 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 19 | |
Overall result | Labor 3 seat majority |
Labor 6 seat majority |
Labor 1 seat majority |
Labor 2 seat majority |
Labor Largest Party |
Newspaper Endorsements
Newspaper | Endorsement | |
---|---|---|
The Advertiser | Liberal Democrats | |
The Age | National Labor | |
The Iranian | National Labor | |
Empire Times | No Endorsement | |
Information | Liberal Democrats | |
Damascus Herald | National Labor | |
National Times | National Labor | |
Civic Tribune | National Labor | |
The Aware | No Endorsement | |
Islamist Daily | Liberal Democrats |