Difference between revisions of "2022 Scotatrovian Chamber of Deputies Elections"

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| image1            = [[File:LiberalParty.png|130px]]
 
| colour1          = 0000FF
 
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| leader1          = [[Gloria Arnal]]
 
| leader1          = [[Gloria Arnal]]
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| percentage1      = '''42.51%'''
  
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| image2            = [[File:Social Democratic.png|130px]]
 
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| leader2          = [[Dante Gaona]]
 
| leader2          = [[Dante Gaona]]
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| percentage2      = 28.77%
 
| percentage2      = 28.77%
  
| image3            = [[File:Victor Molina.jpg|190px]]
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| image3            = [[File:People's Forum.png|130px]]
 
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| leader3          = [[Victor Molina]]
 
| leader3          = [[Victor Molina]]
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| percentage3      = 26.49%
 
| percentage3      = 26.49%
  
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| image4            = [[File:Communist.png|130px]]
 
| colour4          = BF0040
 
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| leader4          = [[Alan Tafalla]]
 
| leader4          = [[Alan Tafalla]]
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| percentage4      = 1.31%
 
| percentage4      = 1.31%
  
| image5            = [[File:Marco Ocampo.jpg|130px]]
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| image5            = [[File:Christian Democratic.png|130px]]
 
| colour5          = FFBF00
 
| colour5          = FFBF00
 
| leader5          = [[Marco Ocampo]]
 
| leader5          = [[Marco Ocampo]]

Revision as of 04:48, 23 February 2020

This page is a work in progress by its author(s) and should not be considered final.
2022 Scotatrovian Chamber of Deputies Election
2020 ←
October 3, 2022 (First Round)

October 10, 2022 (Second Round)

→ 2024

All 297 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
149 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 59.40% (First Round)

53.34% (Second Round)

  First party Second party Third party
  LiberalParty.png Social Democratic.png People's Forum.png
Leader Gloria Arnal Dante Gaona Victor Molina
Party Ahebres HEIS TC
Last election 50 139 99
Seats won 137 56 96
Seat change Increase 87 Decrease 83 Decrease 3
Popular vote 46,053,131 31,172,592 28,700,957
Percentage 42.51% 28.77% 26.49%

  Fourth party Fifth party
  Communist.png Christian Democratic.png
Leader Alan Tafalla Marco Ocampo
Party Quomuniste Equiloquiia Maseie
Last election 5 4
Seats won 5 3
Seat change Steady 0 Decrease 1
Popular vote 1,423,940 988,685
Percentage 1.31% 0.92%

The 2022 Scotatrova Chamber of Deputies elections were held on October 3 and 10, 2022 to elect members to the Chamber of Deputies to serve in the 28th Scotatrovian Parliament. It coincided with the election of Santiago Diaz as President. All 297 voting seats, as well as 3 non-voting seats, were up for election. The election resulted in a significant victory for the Liberal Party on a national level, as they increased their seats to a majority in both houses of Parliament and won the presidency. Overall, the Liberal Party secured 182 seats – a substantial majority – in Parliament at the expense of the Scotatrovian Social Democratic Party, reduced to 90 seats, and the People's Forum, reduced to 127 seats, as well as a reduction to both the Communist and Christian Democratic parties; 9 and 5 respectively. Turnout increased due to the 2022 presidential election just a couple weeks prior. The 2022 Senate elections and 2022 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, occurred on the same date. The 56th session of the Scotatrovian People's Republic commenced on November 1.

Background

Soon after the reelection of Gabriel Marquez in 2017, many Social Democrats and Liberals in Parliament felt that the electoral system wasn't representing citizens well enough, while members of the opposing People's Forum argued that a change to the system would be a "stain on Scotatrova's most cherished democratic institution". Eventually, the issue was brought to a national referendum in September 2018 that would call for a reform of the electoral system, from one of proportional representation for Parliament to a system of direct universal suffrage with a two-round system by electoral constituency. The referendum also included the break up and creation of more states from the present 12 to implement the system. A majority of voters, 61.4% of them, voted for the referendum, while 38.6% voted against it. It wasn't until mid-2019 that the process of reform officially started. The legislatures from all 12 states agreed to the partition, and 17 new states would be created from them, bringing the total number of states to 29 and to be implemented on January 1, 2020.

After the states were split, the drawing of electoral constituencies began. Parliament would now be composed of 413 members, 297 from the Chamber of Deputies and 116 from the Senate. Each state would be designated a set number of deputies and electorates from their populations, while each state would receive four senators regardless of population. A new census was called earlier to account for these adjustments and held on April 1, 2020. The results of the census helped organize the composition of Parliament and how many deputies each state would be delegated according to their populations. The Liberal and Social Democratic parties were overall supportive of the initiative, while the People's Forum, Communist and Christian Democratic parties heavily criticized it. Two special elections were then organized with the set up of Parliament now complete. An election was called for September 1, 2020 to elect members to this new Parliament, and Legislative Elections would be held in 2022, a month after the Presidential election, to further cement the election of 2020. From there, Chamber elections will continue to be held every 2 years, with Senate elections every 4.

Results and Analysis

The 2022 election resulted in the Social Democratic Party being swept out from power in the worst defeat for a sitting government. The party's net loss of 83 seats marked the largest loss of support for a sitting government in history. In this event, the election result took many by surprise. Opinion polling going into the election predicted a growing polarisation between the People's Forum and the Social Democratic Party, which would be fighting to maintain first place nationally. In the end, both parties suffered a surprise decline in votes and vote share compared to the previous election, while the Liberal Party increased its number of votes and seats.

The Social Democratic Party, while clinging on to second place, kept losing votes and was reduced to 56 seats. The People's Forum only suffered the loss of 3 seats and fell to 96 seats. In contrast, the Liberal Party won a record absolute majority in a landslide, being the party's best historic result. The Liberal's 87-seat pickup in the Chamber of Deputies to take control of that chamber, as well as their gain of 18 Senate seats, signified a dramatic rollback of recent Social Democratic gains. In the election, Liberals won their greatest number of Chamber seats and the largest for any party ever. Liberals also took control of 15 of the 29 state governorships and made historic gains in state legislatures. The Peninsular region, which had favored the Social Democratic Party, went strongly Liberal. In the North, however, the Social Democrats retained the upper hand.

Electoral System

Each of the 297 parliamentary electorates elect one representative to the Chamber of Deputies, in a two-round election. Candidates for the legislative elections had five days, from Tuesday September 6 to 18:00 on Saturday September 10, to declare and register their candidacy. The official campaign ran from September 13 to October 2 at midnight, while the campaign for the second round runs from October 4 at midnight to October 9 at midnight, with eligible candidates required to declare their presence by 18:00 on October 5.

A candidate is elected in the first round if he or she obtains an absolute majority of the vote in his or her electorate and the votes of at least one quarter of all registered voters in the electorate. If no candidate is elected in the first round, then the two candidates who finished first and second in the first round advance automatically to the second for a runoff. They may be joined by the third- or even fourth-placed candidate; the second round is open to any candidate who has obtained the votes of at least 12.5% of registered voters in the electorate. Low turnouts therefore decrease the likelihood of a three-person runoff. In the second round, the candidate who obtains the most votes is elected; an absolute majority is not required.

Voting in the Scotatrovian overseas territories (i.e. Gana, Neal Isles and Romosea Islands) took place from 08:00 to 18:00 (local time) on Sunday October 2 and voting for the second round took place from 08:00 to 18:00 on Sunday October 9. The 28th Scotatrovian Parliament convened on November 1 at 15:00 local time.