Difference between revisions of "Opinion polling for Kyrloth General Elections"

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In this table, the Region column is divided by the region that was polled. "Injirlos" refers to the geographical area of far-west Borea, in this case the area owned by the Republic of Kyrloth prior to the [https://forum.theeastpacific.com/mr-tass-s-holiday-t-a-r-a-parts-3-4-kyrloth-expans-t16094.html Kyrlot-Kireitan War]. "Kireita" refers to area owned by the [[Nation/Kireitarenua|People's Republic of Kireitarenu'a]] prior to its annexation. "Overall" refers to the entirety of Kyrloth, post-annexation, and "Speaker Election" indicates polls referring to the [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election]], in which there are only two candidates: Heron Tazment, for the [[Political Parties of Kyrloth#Soldiers' Guild|Soldiers' Guild]], and Sereia Astur, fielded by the coalition of the three other parties, known as [[Political Parties of Kyrloth#The Opposition|The Opposition]].
 
In this table, the Region column is divided by the region that was polled. "Injirlos" refers to the geographical area of far-west Borea, in this case the area owned by the Republic of Kyrloth prior to the [https://forum.theeastpacific.com/mr-tass-s-holiday-t-a-r-a-parts-3-4-kyrloth-expans-t16094.html Kyrlot-Kireitan War]. "Kireita" refers to area owned by the [[Nation/Kireitarenua|People's Republic of Kireitarenu'a]] prior to its annexation. "Overall" refers to the entirety of Kyrloth, post-annexation, and "Speaker Election" indicates polls referring to the [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election]], in which there are only two candidates: Heron Tazment, for the [[Political Parties of Kyrloth#Soldiers' Guild|Soldiers' Guild]], and Sereia Astur, fielded by the coalition of the three other parties, known as [[Political Parties of Kyrloth#The Opposition|The Opposition]].
 +
 +
=== Speaker Election Polls ===
  
 
{|class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
 
{|class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
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! style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"|Date(s)<br />conducted
 
! style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"|Date(s)<br />conducted
 
! style="width:200px;" rowspan="2"|Polling organisation/client
 
! style="width:200px;" rowspan="2"|Polling organisation/client
−
! style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"|Region
 
 
! style="width:65px;" rowspan="2"|Sample size
 
! style="width:65px;" rowspan="2"|Sample size
−
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| SG
+
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| Soldiers' Guild
−
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| Soc
+
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| The Opposition
−
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| CoS
+
−
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| RCB
+
 
! style="width:20px;" rowspan="2"|Lead
 
! style="width:20px;" rowspan="2"|Lead
 
|-
 
|-
−
! style="background:#ff0000; width:60px;"|
+
! style="background:#ff0000; width:180px;"|
−
! style="background:#ff8000; width:60px;"|
+
! style="background:#404040; width:180px;"|
−
! style="background:#0080ff; width:60px;"|
+
−
! style="background:#008000; width:60px;"|
+
 
|-
 
|-
 
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''1 October'''  
 
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''1 October'''  
−
|style="background:#D5D5D5" colspan="2"|[[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|2019 Speaker Election results]] (disputed)
+
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|[[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|2019 Speaker Election results]] (disputed)
 
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|–
 
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|–
 
|style="background:#ff8080"|'''72.1%'''  
 
|style="background:#ff8080"|'''72.1%'''  
−
|style="background:#D5D5D5" colspan="3"|'''27.9%'''  
+
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''27.9%'''  
 
|style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|44.2%
 
|style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|44.2%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 30 September
 
| 30 September
 
| Kyrloth News Central '''(S)'''
 
| Kyrloth News Central '''(S)'''
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
 
| 1,256
 
| 1,256
 
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''71%'''
 
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''71%'''
−
| colspan="3" | 29%
+
| 29%
 
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|42%
 
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|42%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 29 September
 
| 29 September
 
| Radio Black Flag
 
| Radio Black Flag
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
+
| 2,115
−
| 2,131
+
 
| 34%
 
| 34%
−
| colspan="3" style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''66%'''
+
| style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''66%'''
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|32%
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|32%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 22 September
 
| 22 September
 
| Radio Black Flag
 
| Radio Black Flag
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
 
| 1,961
 
| 1,961
 
| 38%
 
| 38%
−
| colspan="3" style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''62%'''
+
| style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''62%'''
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|24%
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|24%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 16 September
 
| 16 September
 
| Kyrloth News Central '''(S)'''
 
| Kyrloth News Central '''(S)'''
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
 
| 1,279
 
| 1,279
 
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''76%'''
 
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''76%'''
−
| colspan="3" | 24%
+
| 24%
 
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|52%
 
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|52%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 15 September
 
| 15 September
 
| Radio Black Flag
 
| Radio Black Flag
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
 
| 2,131
 
| 2,131
 
| 41%
 
| 41%
−
| colspan="3" style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''59%'''
+
| style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''59%'''
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|18%
 
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|18%
 
|-
 
|-
−
| rowspan="2" | 8 September
+
| 8 September
−
| rowspan="2" | Radio Black Flag
+
| Radio Black Flag
 +
| 1,534
 +
| 49%
 +
| style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''51%'''
 +
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|2%
 +
|-
 +
| 23 August
 +
| Radio Black Flag
 +
| 896
 +
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''52%'''
 +
| 48%
 +
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|4%
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
=== General Election Polls ===
 +
 
 +
{|class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
 +
|-
 +
! style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"|Date(s)<br />conducted
 +
! style="width:200px;" rowspan="2"|Polling organisation/client
 +
! style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"|Region
 +
! style="width:65px;" rowspan="2"|Sample size
 +
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| SG
 +
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| Soc
 +
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| CoS
 +
! style="width:60px;" class="unsortable"| RCB
 +
! style="width:20px;" rowspan="2"|Lead
 +
|-
 +
! style="background:#ff0000; width:60px;"|
 +
! style="background:#ff8000; width:60px;"|
 +
! style="background:#0080ff; width:60px;"|
 +
! style="background:#008000; width:60px;"|
 +
|-
 +
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|'''1 October'''
 +
|style="background:#D5D5D5" colspan="2"|[[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|2019 Speaker Election results]] (disputed)
 +
|style="background:#D5D5D5"|–
 +
|style="background:#ff8080"|'''72.1%'''
 +
|style="background:#D5D5D5" colspan="3"|'''27.9%'''
 +
|style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|44.2%
 +
|-
 +
| 29 September
 +
| Radio Black Flag
 +
| Overall
 +
| 2,115
 +
| 36%
 +
| style="background:#ffc080" |'''47%'''
 +
| 11%
 +
| 6%
 +
|style="background:#ff8000; color:white;"|11%
 +
|-
 +
| 8 September
 +
| Radio Black Flag
 
| Overall
 
| Overall
−
| rowspan="2" | 1,534
+
| 1,534
 
| 33%
 
| 33%
 
| style="background:#ffc080" |'''49%'''
 
| style="background:#ffc080" |'''49%'''
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| 6%
 
| 6%
 
|style="background:#ff8000; color:white;"|16%
 
|style="background:#ff8000; color:white;"|16%
−
|-
 
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
−
| 49%
 
−
| colspan="3" style="background:#c0c0c0" |'''51%'''
 
−
| style="background:#404040; color:white;"|2%
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 1 September
 
| 1 September
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| 7%
 
| 7%
 
|style="background:#ff8000; color:white;"|19%
 
|style="background:#ff8000; color:white;"|19%
−
|-
 
−
| 23 August
 
−
| Radio Black Flag
 
−
| [[2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election|Speaker Election]]
 
−
| 896
 
−
| style="background:#ff8080" | '''52%'''
 
−
| colspan="3" | 42%
 
−
| style="background:#ff0000; color:white;"|4%
 
 
|-
 
|-
 
| 18 August
 
| 18 August

Revision as of 18:27, 29 September 2019

This page is a work in progress by its author(s) and should not be considered final.

On a regular basis, various organisations (some private, some state-owned) carry out opinion polling in order to determine voting intentions. For convenience, all polls are displayed on this wiki page. Due to the Anti-Propaganda Act of 2019, state-run media corporations are generally considered unreliable and inaccurate, and their opinion polls are therefore marked with an (S) symbol.

Under Article 14 of the Kyrlot constitution, the next general election is scheduled to be held no later than 16 February 2023, although with the approval of a majority of parliament, one can be held earlier.

Polls leading up to the 2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election

In this table, the Region column is divided by the region that was polled. "Injirlos" refers to the geographical area of far-west Borea, in this case the area owned by the Republic of Kyrloth prior to the Kyrlot-Kireitan War. "Kireita" refers to area owned by the People's Republic of Kireitarenu'a prior to its annexation. "Overall" refers to the entirety of Kyrloth, post-annexation, and "Speaker Election" indicates polls referring to the 2019 Kyrloth Speaker Election, in which there are only two candidates: Heron Tazment, for the Soldiers' Guild, and Sereia Astur, fielded by the coalition of the three other parties, known as The Opposition.

Speaker Election Polls

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size Soldiers' Guild The Opposition Lead
1 October 2019 Speaker Election results (disputed) – 72.1% 27.9% 44.2%
30 September Kyrloth News Central (S) 1,256 71% 29% 42%
29 September Radio Black Flag 2,115 34% 66% 32%
22 September Radio Black Flag 1,961 38% 62% 24%
16 September Kyrloth News Central (S) 1,279 76% 24% 52%
15 September Radio Black Flag 2,131 41% 59% 18%
8 September Radio Black Flag 1,534 49% 51% 2%
23 August Radio Black Flag 896 52% 48% 4%

General Election Polls

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Region Sample size SG Soc CoS RCB Lead
1 October 2019 Speaker Election results (disputed) – 72.1% 27.9% 44.2%
29 September Radio Black Flag Overall 2,115 36% 47% 11% 6% 11%
8 September Radio Black Flag Overall 1,534 33% 49% 12% 6% 16%
1 September Kyrloth News Central (S) Overall 1,341 56% 14% 7% 23% 33%
28 August Radio Black Flag Overall 1,241 32% 51% 10% 7% 19%
18 August Radio Black Flag Overall 799 31% 54% 9% 6% 23%
12 August Sinter Tass signs arrest warrant for Socialist party leader Gull Hughny
10 August Kestarun Overall 1,431 31% 43% 15% 11% 12%
Injirlos 904 39% 38% 15% 8%
Kireita 527 12% 55% 15% 18%
1 August – (ongoing) Kyrlot-Izrian War
1 August Kestarun Injirlos 1,076 42% 34% 17% 7% 8%
1 July Kestarun Injirlos 967 48% 30% 16% 6% 18%
29 June Kireitan Provisional Election results
(disputed) 		Kireita – 46.9% 34.8% 8.7% 9.6% 12.1%
1 June Kestarun Injirlos 1,056 56% 25% 14% 5% 31%
10 May – 25 May Kyrlot-Kireitan War
1 May Kestarun Injirlos
(pre-war Kyrloth) 		1,004 42% 29% 19% 10% 13%
1 April Kestarun 996 44% 28% 21% 7% 16%
1 March Kestarun 1,021 53% 24% 20% 9% 29%

Polls leading up to the 2019 Kyrloth General Election

2019

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size SG Soc CoS RCB HR Lead
16 February 2019 General Election results – 50.8% 23.7% 17.8% 7.7% – 27.1%
11 February Kyrloth News Central 1,534 44% 22% 24% 10% – 20%
4 February Kyrloth News Central 1,525 41% 19% 22% 18% – 19%
1 February Kestarun 879 39% 24% 23% 14% – 15%
27 January Kyrloth News Central 1,576 43% 16% 24% 17% 0% 19%
26 January Kasra Mall bombing, Police Expanded Protection bill signed into law in emergency session of parliament
21 January Kyrloth News Central 1,312 24% 10% 36% 28% 2% 8%
18 January Sinter Tass announces a general election is to be held on 16 February 2019
1 January Kestarun 1,014 22% 9% 38% 29% 2% 11%

2018

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size SG Soc CoS RCB HR Lead
1 December Kestarun 961 24% 10% 36% 28% 2% 8%
1 November Kestarun 1,025 20% 9% 37% 31% 3% 6%
1 October Kestarun 998 21% 8% 39% 29% 3% 10%
1 September Kestarun 1,019 23% 9% 42% 25% 1% 17%
1 August Kestarun 987 25% 11% 40% 21% 2% 15%
1 July Kestarun 1,002 27% 4% 50% 18% 1% 23%
1 June Assassination of Hefanira Tara, Sinter Tass becomes Prime Minister
1 June Kestarun 946 18% 12% 33% 34% 3% 1%
1 May Kestarun 981 17% 13% 36% 32% 2% 4%
1 April Kestarun 990 15% 10% 35% 38% 2% 3%
15 March Masari Té and the rest of SoAZ are arrested following a riot

Polls leading up to the 2018 Kyrloth General Election

2018

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size RCB CoS SG Soc SoAZ HR Lead
5 March 2018 General Election results – 33.6% 33.3% 14.9% 8.0% 6.1% 4.2% 0.3%
26 February Kyrloth News Central 1,644 35% 32% 15% 9% 5% 4% 3%
19 February Kyrloth News Central 1,458 33% 34% 16% 8% 4% 5% 1%
12 February Kyrloth News Central 1,511 35% 34% 13% 10% 5% 3% 1%
5 February Kyrloth News Central 1,564 32% 36% 15% 9% 4% 4% 4%
1 February Kestarun 1,644 41% 28% 13% 11% 4% 3% 13%
31 January Taren Elti'a steps down as Council leader following the Mauve Folder scandal
29 January Kyrloth News Central 1,455 47% 17% 14% 15% 3% 4% 30%
26 January Ryan Mariner calls an election and steps down as Prime Minister and Board leader following the Mauve Folder scandal.
1 January Kestarun 988 24% 26% 17% 27% 3% 3% 1%

2017

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size RCB CoS SG Soc SoAZ HR Lead
1 December Kestarun 1,044 23% 28% 19% 22% 3% 5% 5%
1 November Kestarun 998 26% 27% 18% 21% 4% 4% 1%
1 October Kestarun 936 28% 26% 19% 20% 4% 3% 2%
1 September Kestarun 1,028 29% 30% 17% 19% 2% 3% 1%
1 August Kestarun 1,042 30% 32% 14% 20% 3% 1% 2%
1 July Kestarun 984 31% 30% 15% 19% 3% 2% 1%
1 June Kestarun 941 34% 27% 12% 21% 3% 3% 7%
1 May Kestarun 1,124 32% 32% 14% 16% 4% 2% Tie
1 April Kestarun 992 33% 32% 13% 16% 5% 1% 1%
1 March Kestarun 1,001 34% 34% 14% 15% 5% 0% Tie
1 February Kestarun 1,015 32% 34% 14% 15% 4% 1% 2%
1 January Kestarun 968 31% 32% 14% 17% 5% 1% 1%

2016

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size RCB CoS SG Soc SoAZ HR Lead
1 December Kestarun 971 33% 33% 13% 15% 6% 0% Tie
1 November Kestarun 1,022 32% 35% 14% 15% 4% 0% 3%
1 October Kestarun 1,014 33% 34% 15% 14% 3% 1% 1%
1 September Kestarun 1,055 33% 35% 14% 14% 4% 0% 2%
1 August Kestarun 949 34% 35% 14% 14% 3% 0% 1%
1 July Kestarun 1,019 35% 34% 11% 15% 5% 0% 1%
1 June Kestarun 998 34% 33% 12% 15% 6% 0% 1%
1 May Kestarun 1,066 34% 34% 12% 16% 4% 0% Tie
1 April Kestarun 1,004 33% 31% 11% 18% 6% 1% 2%
1 March Kestarun 987 32% 33% 11% 17% 6% 1% 1%
1 February Kestarun 989 32% 34% 12% 16% 6% 0% 2%
1 January Kestarun 1,024 35% 31% 16% 13% 5% 0% 4%

Polls leading up to the 2015 Kyrloth General Election

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size RCB CoS SG Soc SoAZ HR Lead
30 August 2015 General Election results – 38.4% 30.7% 15.3% 8.3% 6.6% 0.6% 7.7%
23 August Kyrloth News Central 1,548 37% 31% 16% 10% 6% 0% 6%
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